Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
